# Metaculus Predictions

#### 2021-02-18

### When will the VIX index fall below 20?

When will the VIX index fall below 20? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-01-26 - 2021-03-02)

#### 2021-02-23

### When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?

When will the single-dose Johnson & Johnson SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-02-14 - 2021-02-28)

#### 2021-03-04

### When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be?

When will the third SpaceX Starship flight be? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-02-26 - 2021-03-07)

#### 2021-03-08

### When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?

When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-02-18 - 2021-03-14)

#### 2021-03-16

### When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?

When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-02-17 - 2021-03-28)

#### 2021-03-28

### On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?

On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-03-19 - 2021-04-03)

#### 2021-03-29

### When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?

When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-03-21 - 2021-04-01)

#### 2021-03-30

### When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?

When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-03-21 - 2021-07-01)

#### 2021-03-30

### Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?

Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-03-28 - 2021-03-31)

#### 2021-04-02

### When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?

When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-03-25 - 2021-04-06)

#### 2021-04-04

### When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?

When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-04-02 - 2021-04-08)

#### 2021-04-19

### When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?

When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-04-14 - 2021-04-24)

#### 2021-04-22

### When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial?

When will there be a verdict in the Derek Chauvin trial? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-04-19 - 2021-04-23)

#### 2021-04-23

### When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?

When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-04-13 - 2021-04-27)

#### 2021-04-29

### When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?

When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-04-26 - 2021-05-01)

#### 2021-05-03

### When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?

When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-04-17 - 2021-05-08)

#### 2021-05-07

### When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released?

When will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2020-09-22 - 2021-12-29)

#### 2021-05-10

### When will Nicolás Maduro leave the office of President?

When will Nicolás Maduro leave the office of President? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2018-05-25 - 2021-06-02)

#### 2021-05-12

### When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?

When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-03-04 - 2021-05-26)

#### 2021-05-17

### When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?

When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-05-14 - 2021-05-20)

#### 2021-05-19

### When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?

When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-04-16 - 2021-06-02)

#### 2021-05-27

### When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?

When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-05-23 - 2021-12-31)

#### 2021-05-27

### When will the US-Canada border reopen?

When will the US-Canada border reopen? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-03-28 - 2021-06-27)

#### 2021-06-09

### When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?

When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-05-22 - 2021-06-24)

#### 2021-06-12

### When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?

When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-05-04 - 2021-06-30)

#### 2021-06-13

### When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project?

When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-02-24 - 2021-08-14)

#### 2021-06-14

### When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?

When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-05-06 - 2021-06-30)

#### 2021-06-15

### When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?

When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-05-26 - 2021-06-29)

#### 2021-06-18

### When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?

When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-03-12 - 2021-07-25)

#### 2021-06-24

### When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?

When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-04-19 - 2021-07-05)

#### 2021-06-26

### When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?

When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-05-06 - 2021-08-10)

#### 2021-07-16

### When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?

When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-05-15 - 2021-07-31)

#### 2021-07-27

### When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?

When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-04-05 - 2021-08-22)

#### 2021-08-07

### When will the US-EU border reopen?

When will the US-EU border reopen? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-06-24 - 2021-09-11)

#### 2021-08-15

### When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?

When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-05-16 - 2021-09-05)

#### 2021-08-22

### When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?

When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-05-19 - 2021-09-23)

#### 2021-09-01

### When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?

When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-09-04 - 2021-10-01)

#### 2021-09-04

### When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?

When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-08-07 - 2021-12-29)

#### 2021-09-06

### When will be the next S&P 500 correction?

When will be the next S&P 500 correction? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-01-08 - 2021-10-21)

#### 2021-09-08

### When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?

When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-06-06 - 2021-10-19)

#### 2021-09-09

### When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?

When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-04-10 - 2021-10-18)

#### 2021-09-20

### When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?

When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-07-05 - 2022-12-14)

#### 2021-09-21

### When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?

When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2020-11-02 - 2021-12-28)

#### 2021-09-27

### When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?

When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-07-13 - 2021-11-16)

#### 2021-09-29

### When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?

When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2020-12-14 - 2022-01-28)

#### 2021-10-09

### On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "low"?

On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as "low"? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-05-17 - 2021-11-02)

#### 2021-10-11

### When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?

When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-03-26 - 2021-12-11)

#### 2021-10-20

### When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?

When will there be a publicly listed clean meat company? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2020-12-20 - 2022-01-05)

#### 2021-10-23

### When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?

When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2020-02-01 - 2021-11-19)

#### 2021-11-04

### When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?

When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia? 50% Maximum Posterior Density Interval (2021-05-30 - 2022-01-05)