Metaculus Covid-related Forecasts

This timeline is inspired by Metaculus forecaster PepeS (https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/112705/) awesome post on Metaculus Discord and created by me, Metaculus forcaster michal_dubrawski (https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/110217/). All dates are community medians as of 25th January 2021. I copied question text from the Metaculus.com. You can see the question on metaculus by clicking on the event and then clicking at "Find out more" button below copied question the text. There is also a 2D vie (click on "2D" button in the lower left corner) For a background I used image by NIAID, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons, it was inspired by great website https://www.covidfaq.co/

2021-03-04 12:00:00

In-home COVID-19 diagnostic test on Amazon

One problem with COVID-19 testing is that it presently runs directly counter to stay-at-home orders. In order to get tested, one must leave one's home. A logical solution to this conundrum is to create at-home tests. This is already common practice for many conditions other than COVID-19. Amazon offers a wide array of FDA-approved medical diagnostic tests for use at home, notably including HIV. Furthermore, the FDA has already approved an in-home diagnostic test for COVID-19. That said, the FDA's authorization only extends to swab kits to be prescribed by a doctor, administered at home, and sent back for analysis by LabCorp. A test which an individual consumer can order without the intervention of a doctor or laboratory remains over the horizon, but for how long? When will Amazon offer an in-home diagnostic test for COVID-19? This question resolves as the date at which an FDA-approved in-home diagnostic test for SARS-CoV-2 infection can first be purchased by a US consumer from Amazon.com. Question resolves as ambiguous if such a test is discovered on Amazon.com but an initial listing date cannot be determined (or press announcing the event cannot be found). 02 January 2021 clarification: To qualify for resolution, an in-home diagnostic test must be able to be done completely independently by a consumer — i.e., without the need to involve a laboratory or physician/other healthcare provider in any way.

2021-03-06 12:00:00

End of partial lockdown in the Netherlands

The netherlands have had roughly the same confirmed case growth rate since mid june, with 43 thousand testing positive last week according to the coronadashboard. Since october 14th the netherlands have entered a partial lockdown with nationwide measures. This lockdown will continue at least for 4 weeks, with a reevaluation in the weeks until the 27th of oktober. Once this partial lockdown has ended, the government wants to go back to regional measures according to a new roadmap (dutch) which creates 4 levels of covid risk with associated measures. This question was created to track at what date the dutch government will decide that the confirmed case rate and hospital cases have gone down enough to stop the nationwide measures. At what date will the partial lockdown in the Netherlands end? The date is resolved when the dutch government lifts the nationwide measures against covid-19 and reverts to regional measures with a news item in the official government.nl newsfeed

2021-03-09 12:00:00

A previously tested SARS-CoV-2 vaccine begin to be produced at a manufacturing facility whose construction was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

he severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. On 2020-04-03, philanthropist Bill Gates announced that his foundation, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, would be funding the construction of factories ready to manufacture any seven of the most “promising” SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates and then would manufacture one to two of them, depending on forthcoming clinical trial data. This question asks: When will a previously tested SARS-CoV-2 vaccine begin to be produced at a manufacturing facility whose construction was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation? For our purposes, a vaccine is a product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease. The vaccine candidate must have been previously been administered to at least 100 people as part of a SARS-CoV-2 clinical trial. This question resolves as the date when the first article is published that presents the claim that a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine has begun to be produced at a manufacturing facility whose construction was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. This article must be authored by at least one of those involved in the funding, organizing, or researching of this effort. The credibility of this article will be determined by Metaculus. Pre-prints will be considered and need not be peer-reviewed. If this does not resolve before 08 April 2023, it resolves as >08 April 2023.

2021-03-17 12:00:00

100M people vaccinated against COVID-19

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people? This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered "administered" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.

2021-03-20 12:00:00

AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine US EUA date

AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by the United Kingdom and granted emergency use authorization by Argentina, El Salvador, and India. This vaccine has been highly anticipated, promising benefits such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4. However, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen and less than transparent disclosure. The United States has pre-ordered 500m doses of the vaccine, by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was reported as saying: Americans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups. When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? This question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as this for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.

2021-03-30 12:00:00

Legal meetings of more than six people outside in England

Due to a resurgence in the number of cases of COVID-19, from 14th September 2020 it will be against the law to meet people you do not live with in a group larger than six in England. This government webpage gives more details, including certain exceptions such as for work or education. The Health Secretary has said that this rule won't be in place for "any longer than we have to". But how long will this be? That is, when will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England? The question will resolve when it is legal for any seven people to meet for any purpose in England.

2021-04-06 12:00:00

SARS-CoV-2 human challenge study

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. As of 20 March 2020, the WHO (World Health Organization) is reporting that it is tracking the development of forty-four SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccines. Two of these candidates have entered phase one and the other forty-two remain in the pre-clinical stage. Recent estimates show that it will be 12-18 months until a vaccine is licensed and made widely available. A key bottleneck in the vaccine development timeline is the length of phase 3 clinical trials, which usually involve thousands of participants that have to be extensively followed in the field in order to assess differences in COVID-19 incidence between the vaccine and control groups. Some researchers have suggested that, in the midst of a global pandemic, controlled human challenge studies may be a way to accelerate vaccine development. Such a study would involve deliberately exposing healthy volunteers to live SARS-CoV-2 virus rather than to wait for them to be exposed to it in a natural setting. Conducting such a study would mean that phase 3 testing is bypassed entirely. More on a human challenge study design proposal here. This question asks: When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed? For our purposes, a vaccine is a product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease and a human challenge study is when participants are intentionally challenged with an infectious disease organism. This question resolves as the date when the first article is published that presents the claim that at least 80 patients have received the candidate vaccine as part of a human challenge study. This article must be authored by at least one of those involved in the funding, organizing, or researching of the relevant clinical trial. The credibility of this article will be determined by Metaculus. Pre-prints will be considered and they need not be peer-reviewed. If this does not resolve before 08 April 2023, it resolves as >08 April 2023.

2021-04-11 12:00:00

Date when several vaccine candidates are tested in adaptive trial

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. As of 20 March 2020, the WHO (World Health Organization) is reporting that it is tracking the development of forty-four SARS-CoV-2 candidate vaccines. Two of these candidates have entered phase one and the other forty-two remain in the pre-clinical stage. In order to be considered effective enough to be licensed by regulatory authorities, vaccine candidates must usually be shown to be effective in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with placebo groups. But there is concern that in this case, such RCTs may be ethically infeasible and may take too long. Given the high-mortality situations in which potential participants may find themselves in, there may not be acceptance of randomized controlled trials with control groups by a population. Moreover, the traditional phase I–III categories for RCTs are likely to prolong the timeline for development of a successful candidate. One proposed solution is to test several vaccines at the same time in an adaptive trial design using a shared placebo group. This way, more participants would receive an active vaccine and multiple vaccine candidates can be tested at once. However, such an approach is likely to be especially logistically and statistically complex given that it has not been attempted at this scale before. This question asks: When will several SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates be simultaneously tested in an adaptive trial design using a shared control group? For our purposes, a vaccine is a product that stimulates a person’s immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease. This question resolves as the date when the first article is published that presents the claim that at least two vaccine candidates were simultaneously tested in an adaptive trial design using a shared control group. This article must be authored by at least one of those involved in the funding, organizing, or researching of the relevant clinical trial. The credibility of this article will be determined by Metaculus. Pre-prints will be considered and need not be peer-reviewed. If this does not resolve before 08 April 2023, it resolves as >08 April 2023.

2021-04-11 12:00:00

Date 32M first COVID vaccine doses in UK

From the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan: 4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK. 4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date. The UK is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine, with the second dose given around 12 weeks later. This BBC article on the vaccine rollout provides some useful context. When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? This question resolves when the UK government reports here that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000. If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.

2021-04-11 12:00:00

32M first COVID vaccine doses in UK

From the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan: 4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK. 4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date. The UK is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine, with the second dose given around 12 weeks later. This BBC article on the vaccine rollout provides some useful context. When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? This question resolves when the UK government reports here that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000. If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.

2021-04-28 18:48:11

When will U.S. allow travel from Europe

When will U.S. allow travel from Europe Created by MetaculusOutlooks. Opened on Dec 12, 2020. On 11 March, President Trump issued a presidential proclamation that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of 26 European countries. This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents. When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area? The issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries. If the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”

2021-04-29 00:00:00

25% of the US vaccinated against Covid

The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much slower than anticipated, with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? Resolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.

2021-04-29 23:00:00

COVID-19 Vaccine in Ontario, Canada

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. The New York Times lists 11 vaccine candidates in phase 3 trials, with 49 in early stages of development and 6 approved for limited early use in China and the U. A. E. The CBC reports that Canada has signed deals with 6 vaccine developers to prepurchase doses of COVID-19 vaccines under development as of September 2, 2020. The CBC speculates that It seems likely that manufacturing and distribution of the vaccine will limit the availability of the vaccine, and as a response the government will choose to prioritize early distribution to some groups. For example, priority groups might include: healthcare workers essential workers older adults children people with health conditions that make them vulnerable to COVID-19 Presumably, the vaccine will only be administered to these priority groups for some period of time, after which the vaccine will be made available to the general public. A similar prioritization process took place in vaccination for the H1N1 flu. The CDC suggests a similar process is possible in the US. This question asks: When will a vaccine for COVID-19 be available to the general public in Ontario, Canada? This resolves as the date that the Ontario Government announces that a COVID-19 vaccine is available to all adults including those not in any priority group. If the the vaccine distribution is limited by a lottery, waitlist or similar mechanism, this resolves as the date when the first adult not in a priority is selected from the mechanism to recieve a dose of the vaccine. Acceptable evidence for resolution is an Ontario government news release or other credible article. This question retroactively closes 1 day before the announcement is made. If this question does not resolve before 01 January 2024, it resolves as >01 January 2024. Examples from the H1N1 flu vaccine in 2009 Positive resolution would be triggered on November 19 by this news release. Positive resolution would not be triggered by the language in this earlier news release because it advises a series of priority groups. Positive resolution would not be triggered by reports that some local public health units have started making the vaccine available without provincewide availability, such as this article.

2021-05-09 11:10:14

Indoor social meetings of 6 people in England

On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that England would enter a third national lockdown. The restrictions include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in "tier 1" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people. When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places? This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.

2021-05-17 12:00:00

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine widely available in the US

While vaccine hesitancy remains high at 42% in the US, public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible. Various officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available. Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci estimated "as early as April": When asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded "We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think". HHS Secretary Alex Azar estimated by "March or early April": It’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... "for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.” Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb estimated "heading into fall 2021" "And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021." When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States? This question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide. Similar language to widely available, such as "generally available" or "available for all who want it", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.

2021-05-18 12:00:00

Date when a government first requires antibody test for workers

One proposal for safely ending large-scale lockdowns is to begin issuing "immunity certificates" or "immunity passports". Essentially, an individual would be tested for COVID-19 antibodies, and if they have antibodies, they would be issued a document or credential certifying that they are able to re-enter society without any risk of further spreading the virus. (This only really works if COVID-19 reinfection is either not possible or extremely rare. Fortunately, early reports of reinfections appear to have been erroneous). Unfortunately, currently available antibody tests don't perform very well. Even so, at some point some government may balance test quality against lockdown costs and favor the test. When will a government first require a positive antibody test result for some workers to return to work? The government in question can be any government with legal jurisdiction over at least 500,000 inhabitants (e.g. the State of Wyoming, the city of Washington D.C.), anywhere in the world. It must require an antibody test--a record of infection will not suffice to resolve this question. Question should be resolved on the authority of a reputable news source (where "reputable" is left to the discretion of the Metaculus admins) or press release by the government instituting the policy. At the time the policy is implemented, question retroactively closes at the time the policy was first announced (and resolved as the time at which the policy moved into effect). If the testing policy is delayed or canceled before it is implemented, this question should remain open. If no government of any sufficiently-large population implements an antibody-testing policy before 2025, question resolves as >2024-12-31.

2021-07-05 12:00:00

US COVID-19 deaths below 500

This US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects. According to the CDC, there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th). When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500? This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on this page. If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.

2021-07-14 12:00:00

the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases will first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US

The COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States. On March 13, 2020, Trump declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States. This question resolves as the date on which the seven-day simple moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date): import pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv("https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution)

2021-08-14 12:00:00

TSA Total Traveler Throughput 80% 2019 level

Total Traveler Throughput plummeted in March 2020, reaching a low of 4% of same-weekday-in-2019 Total Traveler Throughput in April 2020. Since then, Total Traveler Throughput has steadily increased, reaching a pandemic-high of 45% on November 22nd, 2020. When will TSA Total Traveler Throughput first exceed 80% of Total Traveler Throughput for the Same Weekday in 2019? This question will resolve according to official TSA checkpoint travel numbers. It will retroactively resolve one week prior to the date when Total Traveler Throughput first exceeds 80% of the Total Traveler Throughput on the same weekday in 2019.

2021-08-19 12:00:00

When will Germany allow US tourists

Tourism has been largely shut down between many Western countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, it is not currently possible to do tourist travel between United States and most Western European countries, such as Germany. When will this travel again be allowed? When will Germany allow US tourists? First day on which it is possible to enter Germany as a US tourist visitor. Rules for travel can be found at the German Federal Foreign Office's website.

2021-08-20 12:00:00

the first antiviral therapy will demonstrate a reduction in mortality rate in COVID-19 patients by 50% in a n>500 RCT

Although most infections of SARS-CoV-2 are self-limited, about 15% of infected adults develop severe pneumonia that requires treatment with supplemental oxygen and an additional 5% progress to critical illness with hypoxaemic respiratory failure, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and multiorgan failure that necessitates ventilatory support, often for several weeks (Wang et al., 2020). When will the first antiviral therapy demonstrate a reduction in mortality rate in COVID-19 patients by 50% in a n>500 RCT? This question resolves as the date when it is announced that an antiviral therapy (including a cocktail of multiple antiviral drugs) has shown to reduce the mortality rate for COVID-19 by at least 50% in an n>500 RCT. Announcement is by a preprint, peer-reviewed publication, or statement by a credible organisation familiar with the matter. The results would have to be statistically significant for the entire treatment group when compared to the control group in order to resolve positively. If the results are statistically significant only for a subset of participants but not overall then this will resolve negatively. This question resolves as ">2024-05-30" if it does not resolve prior to 2024-05-30.

2021-09-23 12:00:00

United States COVID herd immunity (230M) date

Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach herd immunity. Current research suggests that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. Early results from the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines suggest efficacy >90%. Early research results also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS. On November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, stated that he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021. 70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020 However, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with 42% of Americans in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2. When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.

2021-09-26 12:00:00

Indoor party of 100 people in England

One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people. When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn. 'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.

2021-09-29 12:00:00

First day with no UK COVID-19 deaths

As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day. When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19? This question resolves on the first day for which the UK government's dashboard reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. This should resolve according to the "by date of death" panel, not the "by date reported" panel, although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media. Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier). If still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.

2021-10-13 12:00:00

When will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000

According to World Health Organization data, there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The 7-day total of new infections in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869. When will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000? This question resolves positive when the WHO Russian Federation situation page, or the latest WHO situation report, indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date.

2021-10-23 12:00:00

UK Covid herd immunity (53.3m) date

Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of ~95% and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of 62%-90%, depending on the dosing schedule. Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. Current research suggests that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. However, recent evidence indicates that a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK, which could raise the herd immunity threshold. When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19? This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK (≈ 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.

2021-10-30 12:00:00

1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT? This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered "administered" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023. Related question When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?

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